Monthly Portfolio Update - December 2024

Volatile but very positive month

Volatility has been the key word for the last month. The overall performance has been positive (above > 5%) but it shows one thing: nervosity. And this is nervosity is rarely a good sign. As always, I stay invested in the market as I cannot predict its future moves. But as always, I remain careful and continue to focus on quality business models and prepare a plan in case the market consolidates.

If you are curious or missed out, you can find my method here and how to react in case anything bad happens here.

In this section, I present a transparent monthly update of my portfolio. It adheres to my investment strategy. This presentation is divided into several parts:

• Global view of the portfolio’s valuation and metrics

• For dividend enthusiasts, a presentation of the Projected Annual Dividend Income (PADI) and a monthly calendar

• Sector and geographical breakdown

For paid subscribers, there is also:

• An explanation of the month's movements

• A review of the month's news

• A presentation of current portfolios (small-cap and large-cap)

• My reinforcement price for potential stock purchases

• My fair price estimation

• And, of course, access to all my content, including stock deep dives, industry analyses, screeners and scoring, and real-time updates on my buy/sell movements

Please note that my portfolio is denominated in euros, making it subject to exchange rate fluctuations, particularly the euro-dollar exchange rate.

Overall performance

This month, performance has been positive, and I have continued to improve the long-term potential of my portfolios. However, I am keeping some cash on hand to capitalize on potential opportunities in the event of a significant market consolidation. That said, the market could very well continue to rise, helped by the influence of passive asset management.

Within the large-cap segment, attractive opportunities remain rare, which is why I have been focusing more on the small-cap segment (companies with market caps under $10B). As a result, I am continuing to allocate additional cash to my small-cap portfolio.

The strong performance continues for my small-cap portfolio with +32% YTD (the first position I bought was mid-February). My conviction is growing for some of my positions with strong current performance but more importantly improving business model for the next years.

Valuation and metrics

I crossed for the first time the 140k€ threshold. This month I added 1.5k€ in my small-cap portfolio.

My portfolio’s key metrics continued to evolve this month (weighted average)

• Past growth: 17.9% —> 18.2% / Estimated future growth: 12.4% —> 12.9%

• Estimated EPS growth: 15.8%

• Net profit margin: 28.8% —> 28.5%

• ROE: 41.7% —> 40.9% / ROIC: 25.7% —> 24.9%

• Debt leverage: -0.47x —> -0.60x EBITDA (so average net cash position)

• PE: 28.9x —> 29.3x / PE Y+2: 20.7x —> 21.1x

• FCF yield: 4.06—> 4.06% / FCF yield Y+2: 6.00% —> 6.05%

• Dividend yield: 1.26% —> 1.15%

• Dividend growth: 9.5% —> 8.8%

• Buybacks: 0.73% —> 0.71%

• Expected TSR: 13.5% —> 13.5%

Focusing solely on my small-cap portfolio, here are the key metrics (weighted average):

• Past growth: 23.8% —> 25.0% / Estimated future growth: 17.8% —> 19.7%

• Estimated EPS growth: 27.8%

• Net profit margin: 22.6% —> 21.5%

• ROE: 37.9% —> 34.7% / ROIC: 27.6% —> 25.3%

• Debt leverage: -0.54x —> -0.57x EBITDA (so average net cash position)

• PE: 25.0x —> 29.0x / PE Y+2: 16.4x —> 20.2x

• FCF yield: 5.3% —> 4.8% / FCF yield Y+2: 9.6% —> 8.7%

• Dividend yield: 1.89% —> 1.52%

• Dividend growth: 10.4% —> 8.7%

• Dilution: -0.08% —> -0.15%

• Expected TSR: 18.0% —> 18.4%

Published articles in November

• Stock deep dives

  • Robertet

  • Senzime

  • Shift 4 Payments

  • Smartcraft

• Industry analysis

  • Tier List Cosmetics

  • Energy: the new frontier in powering AI

• One Pager Thursdays

  • Special UK

  • Special Data Centers

  • Cybersecurity

  • Week 48

• Screeners + scoring system

  • Dow Jones

  • 23 stocks with growth and low PEG

  • Human Capital Management (HCM) sector benchmark

• Portfolio update

  • 3 new additions + 1 sale

• Investing knowledge

  • Link between margin evolution and PE ratios

Before seeing the 2 portfolios (stocks, moves, news), subscribe now to gain full access to this section. Unlock exclusive access to all my content, including in-depth stock analyses, screening tools, industry reports, and valuable portfolio insights!

This is a great way to better understand buiness models, identify quality stocks and long-term compounders and find great insights on stocks and markets.

Small-Cap Portfolio