What's Behind Shift4 Payments' Stock Decline?
A new episode of "Stock of the Week"
Welcome to this 6th edition of “Stock of the Week”. You can find all the previous stocks of the week and 250 other articles on my main page.
Here are the links to the 5 previous “Stocks of the Week” as well
This week, “Stock of the Week” focuses on Shift4 Payments. The stock has dropped the week of its earnings report, but why? Is this a buying opportunity? Where are the key entry points? Let’s dive in and find out!
Let me know what you think of Shift4 Payments in the comments!
One Pager
The stock at a glance!
Recent news
New deals. Shift4 Payments became the exclusive payment processor for Alterra Mountain Company’s 19 premium mountain resorts across North America, covering lodging, dining, ticketing, and online purchases like the Ikon Pass
Shift4 Payments announced on February 19, 2025, its acquisition of Global Blue, a Swiss-based specialty payments and technology provider, in an all-cash deal valued at approximately $2.5 billion. Financed through cash reserves and debt, the transaction integrates Global Blue’s tax-free shopping, currency conversion, and merchant solutions into Shift4’s platform, aiming to expand its global reach and capitalize on high-margin sectors
Jared Isaacman, Shift4 Payments’ founder and CEO, is stepping down in 2025 to lead NASA under President Trump, with President Taylor Lauber succeeding him
Last earnings report
Q4 sales were $887 vs $1,007M expected. The 2025 outlook is weak: 21%-33% payment volume growth but lower-than-expected revenue
Key operational metrics showed robust growth: end-to-end payment volume increased 49% to $47.9 billion, gross revenue less network fees rose 50% to $405 million, adjusted EBITDA climbed 51% to $205.9 million, and adjusted free cash flow surged 78% to $134 million
GAAP EPS were $1.44 vs $0.86 expected
Analysts’ recommendations
Feb, 19. RBC. Buy. $116 —> $154
Feb, 20. Oppenheimer. Buy. $142 —> $135
My analysis
The previously expected 30%+ growth was unsustainable, and the revised ~20% organic growth outlook appears more reasonable
Despite this adjustment, Shift4 retains strong fundamentals:
Market share gains
Expanding margins
Scalability and acquisitions
Of course, risks remain—particularly with the latest acquisition, which may be somewhat large. However, the company has a solid track record of successful integrations
I see this consolidation as a potential opportunity
For a deeper look into the business model, check out my article.
Technical analysis
I have defined three buying zones that I find interesting for long-term investments during pullbacks. While these zones may not be reached, I am prepared for a market (or stock) consolidation to seize long-term opportunities. For me, this approach offers a better risk/reward ratio.
Of course, this is just my opinion, and I am sharing it with you, but each investor should decide on their own investment style. With that said, here are my three buying zones for Shift4 Payments.
Buying zone 1. $90 (close to the current price)
Buying zone 2. $63
Buying zone 3. $44
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Used source: Marketscreener.com. Affiliate link just here
Yes great conpany
It's overpriced.
Here's a breakdown for what it's worth: https://rockandturner.substack.com/p/shift-4-payments-inc-remarkable-story