Full Portfolio Review - Big Cap Portfolio + portfolio adjustments

Analyzing all the positions and the investment theses

2 times a year I analyze all the stocks in my portfolio to assess their relevance in it. This way I am ready for future stock price evolution (up or down) and I know where to focus my investments.

For each stock, I will:

• Present my average purchase price + the current price

• Present my position

• Explain my current view on the company

• Estimate the yearly total shareholder return. This is calculated with 6 pillars

  • Estimated organic growth

  • Estimated growth from acquisitions

  • Dividends

  • Share buybacks

  • Margin increase or decrease

  • Valuation ratio increase or decrease

• Describe my buying zones

• Present my strategy with the stock

In this article, I will focus on the 29 stocks of my big cap portfolio. And without further ado, let’s begin!

If you are curious here is a link to my last portfolio monthly reporting, just here

5. Alphabet

Purchase price: $118 / current price: $176

Dividend received per share: -

Position: 18 shares

Q1 24 results were excellent for Alphabet. +61% EPS growth vs Q1 23. Cloud is growing and is profitable. Other bets is growing very fast and begin to be an interesting segment. The company outlooks are also improving and future growth should be above 10% a year. Fwd PE is currently 23x which appears to be reasonable.

Estimated yearly total shareholder return: 13%

Buying zone: current price is already an interesting zone for the long-term. But to optimize the entry, $150 was the previous resistance in 2021. The 10-month moving average is $125 - but it seems very low

Strategy: Alphabet is a position I want to increase in the future to 30 shares.

6. ASML

Purchase price: 641€ / current price: 853€ (+33%)

Dividend received per share: 6.85€

Position: 9 shares

If 2024 company growth should be flat, the company is expecting a huge revenue at the end of the decade (between 44B€ and 60B€, from 28B€ in 2024). The order book will be important to follow as it is a metric for future revenue.

Estimated yearly total shareholder return: 14%

Buying zone: First buying zone would be 690€/700€, then 575€

Strategy: For now, my position is big enough. If the stock falls around 700€, it will be a good opportunity to add to my position.

A deep dive is available here

17. Microsoft

Purchase price: $246 / current price: $420 (+70%)

Dividend received per share: $2.79

Position: 22 shares

One of the greatest companies in the stock market. Revenues are diversified, management has a vision, cloud is still growing fast and the company should be one of the biggest winners in the AI market. The stock is expensive around 35x PE, but it is growing around 14% a year. $30B in cash available for further acquisitions.

Estimated yearly total shareholder return: 13%

Buying zone: a range $330-$350 would a great entry price (between the 10-month moving average and the 2021 resistance). $366 could be a first support (July 2023 top)

Strategy: As it is a big winner and has great outlooks, I want to increase the weigh of Microsoft in my portfolio and continue buying shares. I might consider buying shares if the stock price goes under $400. If it consolidates more, it could be a great opportunity.

19. Novo Nordisk

Purchase price: $66 / current price: $132 (+100%)

Dividend received per share: $1.40

Position: 64 shares

The company is growing quickly and this should continue. Risks are competition (for instance other lab developing weight-loss drugs) and patent cliff at the beginning of the next decade.

Estimated yearly total shareholder return: 14%

Buying zone: Hard to identify a support with the huge stock price rise. $92 could be one and is the 10-month moving average.

Strategy: For now, I don’t want to increase my position. It could change in case of a big consolidation.

A deep dive is available here

The other stock reviews are just here for the paid subscribers. For the other it was a pleasure. The message here is clear: even if a stock has been well performing, I do not hesitate to reinforce my positions.