I also think that the youth tends to focus less on alcoholic beverages. They are now occupied with other things. Apart from football, and a few big festivals, cafés and dance halls are visibly disappearing. (Except for more expensive drinks, such as Champagnes, big wines and Whiskies, in the long run.)
I also feel like being healthy is getting cooler. Purely because of the fact that it's getting promoted more extensively. It seems to be cool to be healthy.
Great summary! I would have maybe separated a bit the issues between beer and spirits which are not completely overlapping in my view.
The destocking in spirits has been so brutal in the US! I am slowly building a position as I think when depletion start picking up we could see a strong restocking event. The main issue is the headline risks on those names is very strong at the moment between tariffs and RFK jr.
Really insightful analysis—I enjoyed it! Personally, I believe this market could take an even bigger hit, especially if Trump imposes tariffs on Europe. If you're considering opening a starter position in this industry, it might be wise to wait for the moment those tariffs are officially enacted.
I also think that the youth tends to focus less on alcoholic beverages. They are now occupied with other things. Apart from football, and a few big festivals, cafés and dance halls are visibly disappearing. (Except for more expensive drinks, such as Champagnes, big wines and Whiskies, in the long run.)
This is probably the most concerning element
I also feel like being healthy is getting cooler. Purely because of the fact that it's getting promoted more extensively. It seems to be cool to be healthy.
Great summary! I would have maybe separated a bit the issues between beer and spirits which are not completely overlapping in my view.
The destocking in spirits has been so brutal in the US! I am slowly building a position as I think when depletion start picking up we could see a strong restocking event. The main issue is the headline risks on those names is very strong at the moment between tariffs and RFK jr.
I fully agree, 2 different categories and it could have been great to add this element. Thanks for your suggestion!
Really insightful analysis—I enjoyed it! Personally, I believe this market could take an even bigger hit, especially if Trump imposes tariffs on Europe. If you're considering opening a starter position in this industry, it might be wise to wait for the moment those tariffs are officially enacted.
Yeah. Buy the rumor, sell the news (or in this case sell the rumor and buy the news as it goes down)
Yeah alcohol industry is not predictable for me.