the latest dassault systemes earnings call is sobering - this is a powerful company in the midst of slow growth, some strategic challenges and structural transitions. in other words, the share price has solid reason to decline in my view - not a NOW or SAP whose shares have been hammered independently of company specific reasons. we'll see if CRM sees eroded growth from AI or not. my inclination is that CRM proves to be a value trap over time as large enterprises work directly with LLMs and IT consultants to replicate enough of its offering - and as an alternative to using CRM's agents, to keep CRM in the 'value' category. Punch line for me, right or wrong: NOW and SAP are attractive, although both can still go lower in the shorter term, while DS requires a fresh look later this year and CRM is an avoid. Also, let's say CRM posts earnings that are better than the gloom: the shares 'pop'. I'd expect them to give up gains over the following days / weeks as investors return to awaiting AI's feared negative impact.
Thanks for your insight! Regarding CRM, I think the challenges are very different for SMEs vs large companies, but you are pointing out a very real risk
Thanks for writing this and explaining. I guess my concern is still white collar job losses. If tech jobs slowly diminish while margins expand, is that really healthy for the entire SaaS space even if these companies transition from per-seat pricing to outcome-pricing.
This is a huge question for the whole economy regarding AI
Less white collar job = less middle class = another balance for the economy. But what will this balance look like? Right now we can only write scenarios
the latest dassault systemes earnings call is sobering - this is a powerful company in the midst of slow growth, some strategic challenges and structural transitions. in other words, the share price has solid reason to decline in my view - not a NOW or SAP whose shares have been hammered independently of company specific reasons. we'll see if CRM sees eroded growth from AI or not. my inclination is that CRM proves to be a value trap over time as large enterprises work directly with LLMs and IT consultants to replicate enough of its offering - and as an alternative to using CRM's agents, to keep CRM in the 'value' category. Punch line for me, right or wrong: NOW and SAP are attractive, although both can still go lower in the shorter term, while DS requires a fresh look later this year and CRM is an avoid. Also, let's say CRM posts earnings that are better than the gloom: the shares 'pop'. I'd expect them to give up gains over the following days / weeks as investors return to awaiting AI's feared negative impact.
Thanks for your insight! Regarding CRM, I think the challenges are very different for SMEs vs large companies, but you are pointing out a very real risk
Thanks for writing this and explaining. I guess my concern is still white collar job losses. If tech jobs slowly diminish while margins expand, is that really healthy for the entire SaaS space even if these companies transition from per-seat pricing to outcome-pricing.
This is a huge question for the whole economy regarding AI
Less white collar job = less middle class = another balance for the economy. But what will this balance look like? Right now we can only write scenarios