Why Are Defense Companies Investing so Heavily in Military Robots?
The future of warfare
The recent large-scale conflict in Ukraine has underscored the critical role of robotics in modern warfare, showcasing how rapidly advancing technologies are reshaping battle strategies and military capabilities. For example, drones, once limited to niche operations, have evolved into essential tools across a range of combat functions: reconnaissance, intelligence gathering, precision bombing, suicide missions, and even counter-drone systems. Their effectiveness has proven pivotal in this conflict, influencing battlefield dynamics, supporting ground forces, and reducing risks to personnel.
Beyond drones, other robotic technologies are emerging, from autonomous vehicles and surveillance systems to robotic exoskeletons that enhance soldier performance. This wave of innovation aligns with the increasing global defense budgets and highlights an expanding market in military robotics.
In this article, we will analyze the current state of military robotics, discuss key technological and strategic trends, and identify some stocks in this rapidly growing sector.
Why are robots developing so fast?
Robots offer significant advantages in modern military applications, with potential that continues to grow as technology advances:
Enhanced mission efficiency. Robots provide critical support to soldiers, allowing for faster and more efficient mission execution with reduced error and increased precision.
Expanded warfare capabilities. Robotic technology enables new methods of warfare, including advanced scouting, targeted bombing, autonomous threat neutralization, and surveillance, giving militaries a strategic edge.
Data collection and decision-making. Advanced military robots are equipped with sensors and AI systems capable of gathering and processing vast amounts of data in real time. This data helps military strategists make informed, timely decisions based on accurate situational awareness.
Continuous, autonomous operation. Unlike humans, robots can operate continuously without fatigue, making them ideal for round-the-clock surveillance, reconnaissance, and security tasks that require consistent attention and persistence.
Cost efficiency. Robots can potentially reduce long-term costs by minimizing the need for personnel in high-risk roles and lowering the expenses associated with human casualties.
Life-saving and risk reduction. Robots can take on high-risk roles in combat, reducing casualties by handling dangerous tasks such as bomb disposal, mine clearance, and search and rescue. This not only protects soldiers' lives but also lessens the psychological toll on human operators.
The different types of robots
Military robots come in various forms, with unmanned vehicles being the most popular. These can be divided into three primary types: Unmanned Ground Vehicles (UGVs), Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), and Unmanned Underwater Vehicles (UUVs). Each type serves distinct purposes across transportation, search and rescue, mine clearance, and surveillance.
One of the most common types, transportation robots, assist soldiers by carrying supplies, such as artillery and other essential equipment, and can even be used for casualty evacuation. Search and rescue robots play a critical role in locating missing or captured personnel, particularly in hard-to-access areas like underwater or disaster zones. Mine clearance robots, meanwhile, are specifically designed UGVs that detect and deactivate landmines remotely, helping to make war-torn areas safe for civilians again.
Other key types include firefighting robots, which support military personnel in managing combat-related fires, and surveillance and reconnaissance robots that provide enhanced monitoring capabilities in intelligence and reconnaissance missions. The military also employs armed robots to support combat operations by eliminating threats directly and training robots for live-combat simulation exercises, such as Polytronic International’s autonomous robotic targets. These technologies collectively enhance safety, operational efficiency, and training capabilities across modern military operations.
The future of war
Looking ahead, it is easy to envision a future where AI takes warfare even further. Picture entire armies composed of autonomous robots, executing complex missions seamlessly on land, in the air, and at sea. While humans may still play a role in guiding and supervising these operations, AI could soon reach a level where it commands and coordinates entire military forces independently.
For example, the US military's Replicator initiative aims to deploy thousands of affordable autonomous weapons systems across all branches, countering other armies’ numerical advantage (like China). These systems, capable of independent operations on land, sea, air, and space, reflect a major shift towards AI-driven warfare. Inspired by the success of drones in the Ukraine conflict, the initiative plans to mass-produce “attritable” robots, cost-effective units that can be risked in combat and easily replaced.
Globally, other countries like China, Israel, Turkey, and Australia are rapidly advancing their own autonomous capabilities, suggesting a new era of robotic warfare is underway. For now, maintaining human oversight remains for lethal decisions but with advancement of AI, it could change.
Strong implications
The introduction of autonomous weapons systems has the potential to fundamentally reshape how wars are fought. By removing human soldiers from direct combat, these technologies could make military conflicts more palatable to the public, as the loss of human life would be minimized. Instead of troops on the ground, battles might evolve into clashes between fleets of drones and robots, where the true contest lies in the superiority of technology and the capabilities of military-industrial complexes. War could become less about manpower and more about economic resources, innovation, and technological dominance, turning conflicts into high-stakes tests of industry and artificial intelligence.
However, this shift towards autonomous warfare brings serious ethical concerns. One critical issue is accountability: who bears responsibility when a robot malfunctions or makes a fatal mistake? While optimists believe that AI could follow the rules of engagement more strictly than human soldiers, the unpredictable nature of war makes it impossible to anticipate every scenario. There is a genuine risk that autonomous systems could misinterpret signals, attack unintended targets, or escalate conflicts without human judgment to intervene.
Without a clear framework for their use, autonomous weapons could lead to unintended consequences and potentially lower the threshold for entering conflicts. To harness the benefits and mitigate the risks of these technologies, comprehensive international regulations and cooperation are essential. The ethical guidelines established by the U.S. are a promising first step, but they need to be expanded globally, ensuring that all nations adopt a responsible approach to the development and deployment of autonomous weaponry.
Example of stocks
1. Lockheed Martin
Lockheed Martin uses its already strong position to develop a large portfolio of robots from drones to planes like the Indago 4 (drone) or the Sikorsky MATRIX (helicopters without crew on board) or Stalker UAS (intelligent unmanned aerial systems for surveillance).
Country: USA
Revenue: $71.2B
2024 growth: 5.4%
Net profit margin: 8.9%
2024 PE: 18.4x
2. QinetiQ
QinetiQ’s autonomous robotics portfolio includes a comprehensive range of advanced systems for land, sea, and air applications. QinetiQ develops versatile ground robots (TALON and TITAN) for reconnaissance and explosive ordnance disposal, as well as maritime platforms designed for underwater inspection, mine countermeasures, and anti-submarine warfare. Their aerial solutions include UAVs equipped with cutting-edge sensors and swarming capabilities for surveillance and intelligence missions. Central to the portfolio is the integration of AI and multi-domain interoperability, enabling autonomous systems to coordinate across diverse environments, share intelligence, and make real-time decisions independently.
Country: UK
Revenue: £2.0B
2024 growth: 6.8%
Net profit margin: 7.8%
2025 PE: 18.7x
Other stocks
Many leading defense companies are actively advancing their autonomous robotics programs, including:
Thales. Thales is heavily invested in the development of advanced autonomous systems across air, land, and maritime domains, focusing on both defense and civil applications. Their robotic programs include advanced drone systems like the Spy’Ranger UAV, designed for long-range surveillance and reconnaissance. On land, Thales collaborates on projects involving unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) for military logistics and counter-IED tasks. In the maritime sector, Thales has developed autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) like the CAPTAS Sonar System, used for anti-submarine warfare and mine detection.
RTX. RTX offers a robust suite of robotic systems focused on autonomy, sensor integration, and combat support. Their flagship program includes the Coyote UAV, an expendable drone used for surveillance and swarming operations, as well as the Perdix swarm drones capable of executing complex missions through coordinated maneuvers. The company also pioneers AI-driven autonomous capabilities for missile defense, leveraging AI for autonomous target recognition and tracking, enhancing precision and reducing human decision-making time in combat scenarios.
General Dynamics. General Dynamics features a wide-ranging portfolio of autonomous systems, particularly focused on land and sea robotics. Its MUTT (Multi-Utility Tactical Transport) program offers unmanned ground vehicles designed for resupply, reconnaissance, and casualty evacuation in battlefield environments. Additionally, General Dynamics' Knifefish AUV is a key component of their maritime robotics, specialized in mine countermeasure missions for the US Navy.
BAE Systems. BAE Systems has a strong focus on developing autonomous systems that enhance military effectiveness and reduce operational risks. Their RAVEN and PHASA-35 drone programs are notable for providing high-altitude surveillance and extended operational endurance. In ground robotics, BAE’s Armed Robotic Combat Vehicle (ARCV) program aims to develop autonomous combat vehicles capable of performing offensive and defensive operations without direct human control.
Elbit Systems. Elbit Systems specializes in a wide array of autonomous platforms, particularly for tactical reconnaissance and surveillance missions. Their flagship land-based robots include the Pioneer UGV, used for multi-role applications like border security and counter-terrorism operations. In the air domain, Elbit's Hermes series UAVs are renowned for their advanced surveillance and target acquisition capabilities, often employed in intelligence missions. Elbit Systems also excels in maritime robotics, offering solutions such as the Seagull USV (Unmanned Surface Vehicle), which is equipped for mine countermeasures and anti-submarine warfare.
Conclusion
The rapid evolution of military robotics, highlighted by the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, underscores the transformative impact of autonomous systems on modern warfare. This trend is not limited to aerial drones; advanced ground and maritime robots are also gaining prominence, enhancing capabilities in transportation, mine clearance, and surveillance while minimizing risk to human personnel.
As defense budgets rise globally, the demand for robotic solutions is accelerating, creating new opportunities for innovation and investment in this expanding sector. The shift towards automation and AI-driven warfare signals a new era where autonomous systems could play a dominant role in future conflicts. However, this technological leap also raises significant ethical concerns and challenges, particularly regarding accountability and the potential for unintended escalations. While autonomous robots offer the promise of reduced casualties and enhanced military efficiency, comprehensive international regulations and responsible development are essential to ensure these powerful tools are used judiciously.