Stock of the Week: LVMH - Is the Pain Finally Over?
Earnings spark 12% bounce — a turning point for the luxury giant?
Here is the 36th edition of “Stock of the Week”. You can find all the previous analyses and my articles on my main page (for an easier search, use a computer, mobile version is harder to navigate).
Here is the link to the previous “Stocks of the Week” as well
LVMH’s organic growth made a comeback in Q3 2025, sparking a 12% rally. In a past Stock of the Week piece (right here), I shared my earlier take, here is what I said then.
“At current levels, the stock offers an attractive entry point with a reasonable valuation. While a return to all-time highs may take time, the long-term fundamentals remain solid. Key indicators to monitor in the coming quarters include a rebound in topline growth and recovery in margins”
I previously highlighted a buying opportunity around €450. Shares have since gained about 30%. The key question now: what comes next?
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The stock at a glance
Recent news
Berenberg said it “believes that the industry faces a structural demand problem, and that after three decades the luxury supercycle is over”. The analyst expects 2-3% growth per year in the medium term (vs 6% historically)
Loro Piana (one of the brands) has been put under court administration over the exploitation of workers in Chinese-owned Milan workshop
LVMH appointed Maria Grazia Chiuri, previously at Dior, as Fendi’s new creative director to revitalize the brand
Sephora, part of LVMH, achieved record-breaking sales with the launch of Hailey Bieber’s Rhode beauty line
Last earnings report
LVMH’s first quarterly organic sales growth of the year at 2% YoY, with reported revenue reaching €18.28B despite more than 5% currency effects.
This beat analyst expectations, signaling a rebound in luxury demand amid ongoing geopolitical and economic headwinds, and propelled LVMH shares up over 12% in after-hours trading
By business segment, fashion and leather goods saw a 2% organic decline, weighed down by softer tourist spending in Europe, though Louis Vuitton and Dior showed signs of stabilization through innovative collections and new store openings in key US markets. Selective retailing surged 7% organically, driven by Sephora’s exceptional performance, including the blockbuster launch of Hailey Bieber’s Rhode beauty line, while perfumes and cosmetics and watches and jewelry each grew 2%. Wines and spirits edged up 1%, supported by strong champagne and Provence rosé sales despite poor Cognac trend.
Investors chose to focus on the sequential improvement, suggesting that the worst may now be behind LVMH.
Analysts’ recommendations
Oct, 16. Berenberg. Buy —> Hold. 550€ —> 570€
Oct, 16. UBS. Hold —> Buy. 513€ —> 680€
Oct, 15. Oddo. Buy. 559€ —> 585€
Oct, 14. Jefferies. Hold. 470€ —> 530€
My analysis
If the worst is indeed behind us, the outlook still is not as bright as it once was. Despite solid fundamentals and continued market dominance, LVMH is unlikely to regain its previous pace of growth.
Several risks remain: shifting consumer preferences (as brand desirability is difficult to sustain and offers a weaker moat than often assumed), potential uncertainty around Bernard Arnault’s succession, and broader political risks in France.
That said, LVMH remains the largest and most diversified player in the luxury sector, a true global blue chip with world-class brands, strong cash flows, and exceptional talent. However, while the stock was attractive around 450€ when I first highlighted it, the current risk/reward balance no longer looks as compelling.
Technical analysis
I have defined three buying zones that I find interesting for long-term investments during pullbacks. While these zones may not be reached, I am prepared for a market (or stock) consolidation to seize long-term opportunities. For me, this approach offers a better risk/reward ratio.
Of course, this is just my opinion, and I am sharing it with you, but each investor should decide on their own investment style. With that said, here are my three buying zones for LVMH.
Buying zone 1. 540€
Buying zone 2. 450€
Buying zone 3. 370€
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Used source: Marketscreener.com. Affiliate link just here
In the long term, I think it's a good company to have in portfolio. The question is: I think the upside potential is limited in the short term. Would it be better to switch to another company with greater upside potential? What you think?
No it's not, and I hope they give up all their stolen Italian brands. France is in a crisis and their credit rating is pure shit.