Quality Stocks: Stock of the Week

Stock of the Week: Servicenow - the Next Victim of Claude?

Quality Stocks — Tue, 14 Apr 2026 11:09:44 GMT

Welcome to “Stock of the Week”, a recurring series focused on companies experiencing meaningful news flow or changes in their investment case. The objective is not to react to headlines but to understand what is happening beneath the surface and whether recent developments materially affect the long-term investment thesis.

Each article applies the Quality Stocks Investment Framework to assess business quality, return potential and execution, in order to determine whether the stock is Attractive, Conditional, or Unattractive at the current price. A standardized one-pager accompanies each edition to make the decision process clear and easy to follow.

For paid subscribers, Stock of the Week goes a step further by opening up the full reasoning behind the investment thesis and decision process:

Detailed TSR calculations, including all underlying assumptions. This allows investors to understand what must go right for the investment to deliver acceptable returns and to stress-test their own expectations against explicit inputs
My analysis beyond the overall verdict. This provides a deeper insight, enabling investors to form an independent view rather than relying solely on a conclusion

This week’s spotlight is on Servicenow. The stock continues its descent as the SaaSpocalypse narrative tightens its grip on the sector. The recent unveiling of Claude Mythos Preview (with its ability to autonomously hunt zero-day vulnerabilities and navigate complex OS environments) has only accelerated the sell-off. Is this the end of the road for legacy workflow giants? Have I lost faith in software as the primary AI play? Let’s dive in!

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The stock at a glance

Want to understand how the Quality Stocks Investment Framework works? This article breaks it down for you

Data for this week's analysis was sourced via MarketScreener. It is my go-to platform for global stock data and analyst price targets. If you are looking to upgrade your research toolkit, click here (Full disclosure: this is an affiliate link, so you will be supporting this newsletter at no extra cost to you!)

Recent news

Earnings. ServiceNow is expected to report Q1 2026 results on April 22. However, the market has already pre-priced a miss following the UBS downgrade (from $170 to $100). While Q4 2025 revenue was strong at $3.5B (up 20% YoY), the focus has shifted to the 2026 outlook
Segment dynamic. The core IT Service Management (ITSM) segment, once a bulletproof growth engine, is seeing unprecedented seat compression. As enterprises deploy Claude-powered agents, the need for human-licensed seats is shrinking. It is probably not a sign that it ITSM is not needed, but productivity due to AI has significantly increased for developers limiting their number. Conversely, the new “Assist Packs” (Consumption-based AI) grew 100% YoY, but this revenue is not yet large enough to offset the decay in traditional subscription seats
Buybacks. In January 2026, the board authorized an additional $5B buyback to defend the stock price. Critics argue this is catching a falling knife as the stock has already shed 46% YTD
Guidance. Management’s previous guidance of $15B+ in subscription revenue for 2026 is now under heavy fire. UBS and BTIG have warned that Current Remaining Performance Obligations (cRPO) growth will likely exit 2026 at 16%, a sharp deceleration from the 21% previously promised
Claude threat. The April 7 release of Claude Mythos Preview is the primary drag on the stock (at least recently). Mythos demonstrated a 72% success rate in autonomous computer use, performing complex back-office tasks without a human ever touching the ServiceNow UI. This has triggered fears that ServiceNow could be disintermediated, becoming a background database rather than a high-value frontend
Strategic pivot. Under CEO Bill McDermott, the company has launched the Context Engine. The strategy is to move from a System of Record to a System of Intelligence. By opening up an SDK for AI agents (including Claude), ServiceNow is betting that agents will still need their governed data to be useful -that is my exact point of view!)
Product innovation. To combat seat-count erosion, ServiceNow launched Now Assist Pro Plus. This flagship AI tier aims to monetize outcomes (tasks completed) rather than users. However, adoption is hit-or-miss: some customers reported a 400% ROI, while others are hesitant to pay the premium during a period of budget tightening
Capex routing. A significant headwind in 2026 is the AI Pilot Cannibalization. Enterprise Capex is being aggressively routed toward AI initiatives. This AI-first budgeting is starving legacy software projects. CIOs are essentially pausing their ServiceNow expansion plans to fund experimental AI agents, leading to a wait-and-see approach (same for most software companies)

To go deeper about the SaaSpocalypse

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Recent analyst recommendation updates

April, 10. UBS. Buy —> Hold. $170 —> $100
April, 07. BTIG. Buy. $200 —> $185
April, 07. Goldman Sachs. Buy. $216 —> $188
April, 02. Stifel. Buy. $180 —> $135

To go beyond the initial assessment, paid subscribers unlock the detailed TSR calculation with underlying assumptions and my analysis of the situation, providing deeper insight into how recent developments affect risks, opportunities and the overall verdict

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Stock of the Week: Nike - Is the Footwear Giant Dying?

Quality Stocks — Tue, 07 Apr 2026 11:03:50 GMT

For paid subscribers, Stock of the Week goes a step further by opening up the full reasoning behind the investment thesis and decision process:

Detailed TSR calculations, including all underlying assumptions. This allows investors to understand what must go right for the investment to deliver acceptable returns and to stress-test their own expectations against explicit inputs
My analysis beyond the overall verdict. This provides a deeper insight, enabling investors to form an independent view rather than relying solely on a conclusion

This week’s spotlight is on Nike. The company just delivered a beat-and-bleed quarter: while Q3 earnings topped estimates, sales plunged in China and a fresh wave of guidance cuts sent the stock reeling. Now down 30% YTD and a staggering 75% from its 2021 peak, the Swoosh is trading at valuations not seen in over a decade (in terms of market cap). Is this a generational buy-the-dip opportunity or is the world’s largest sportswear brand officially dead money? Let’s dive in!

Missed an edition? Catch up on our recent analyses

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The stock at a glance

Want to understand how the Quality Stocks Investment Framework works? This article breaks it down for you

Recent news

Earnings. Nike reported FY26 Q3 revenue of $11.3B, flat YoY (but down 3% on a currency-neutral basis), slightly exceeding analyst estimates of $11.2B. However, net income plunged 35% to $0.5B, reflecting the heavy costs of the ongoing organizational reset
Segment dynamic. In a major strategic reversal, wholesale revenue rose 5% to $6.5B, driven by a massive 24% surge in North American wholesale. Conversely, Nike DTC fell 4% to $4.5B, with Digital sales dropping 9%
Dividend. Nike maintained its streak of 24 consecutive years of dividend increases, declaring a $0.41 quarterly dividend above its EPS, meaning the company will have to use debt in order to pay it
Guidance. Management warned of a difficult Q4, projecting a revenue decline of 2% to 4%. Gross margin contracted 130 basis points to 40.2%, primarily choked by tariffs and heavy discounting to clear inventory
China. Greater China remains the primary drag on the balance sheet, with sales falling again, marking the 7th straight quarter of decline. Nike is losing ground to local brands like Anta and Li-Ning, which are capturing the youth market with lower price points and nationalistic appeal
Strategic pivot. Under CEO Elliott Hill, the new strategy focuses on re-categorizing by sport (Running, Basketball, Soccer) and accelerating the product speed-to-market cycle to compete with agile rivals like On and Hoka
Product innovation. To combat innovation fatigue, Nike launched the Mind sneaker line in January 2026. This performance-running tech is the flagship of their turnaround, aiming to win back the Everyday Runner who has migrated to Hoka, On or other specialized brands
Operational headwinds. Inventory sits at $7.5B (down 1%). While units are lower, the value of that inventory is inflated by higher product costs and $1.5B in estimated tariff headwinds, forcing Nike to raise prices selectively in 2026 to protect the bottom line (net profit margin is expected to be 4.8% in 2026 vs more than 12% 5 years ago)

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Recent analyst recommendation updates

April, 02. UBS. Hold. $58 —> $54
April, 02. DA Davidson. Buy —> Hold. $72 —> $46
April, 01. Williams Trading. Buy. $80 —> $57
April, 01. Bank of America. Buy —> Hold. $73 —> $53
April, 01. BNP Paribas. Sell. $35 —> $23
April, 01. Truist. Buy. $69 —> $57
April, 01. Deutsche Bank. Hold. $54 —> $51
April, 01. Jefferies. Buy. $110 —> $90
April, 01. Goldman Sachs. Buy —> Hold. $76 —> $52

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Stock of the Week: DLocal - High Growth, Low Valuation, a True GARP Play

Quality Stocks — Tue, 24 Mar 2026 12:47:38 GMT

For paid subscribers, Stock of the Week goes a step further by opening up the full reasoning behind the investment thesis and decision process:

Detailed TSR calculations, including all underlying assumptions. This allows investors to understand what must go right for the investment to deliver acceptable returns and to stress-test their own expectations against explicit inputs
My analysis beyond the overall verdict. This provides a deeper insight, enabling investors to form an independent view rather than relying solely on a conclusion

This week’s spotlight is on DLocal. It is one of my top 12 stock picks for 2026, and the latest Q4 results have firmly validated that thesis. Combining a compressed valuation with a massive growth runway, the company remains a premier play for investors seeking exposure to the fintech revolution across Africa, South America and Asia. It is now time to look beyond the headlines and deconstruct the report to see what is really driving this engine. Let’s dive in!

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The stock at a glance

Want to understand how the Quality Stocks Investment Framework works? This article breaks it down for you

Recent analyst recommendation updates

March, 19. Goldman Sachs. Buy. $18 —> $16.5
March, 16. Truist Securities. Buy. $17 —> $15

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Stock of the Week: Adobe - Double Beat, 15x PE, Yet the Market is Yawning

Quality Stocks — Tue, 17 Mar 2026 12:58:39 GMT

For paid subscribers, Stock of the Week goes a step further by opening up the full reasoning behind the investment thesis and decision process:

Detailed TSR calculations, including all underlying assumptions. This allows investors to understand what must go right for the investment to deliver acceptable returns and to stress-test their own expectations against explicit inputs
My analysis beyond the overall verdict. This provides a deeper insight, enabling investors to form an independent view rather than relying solely on a conclusion

This week’s spotlight is on Adobe. Despite a double beat and solid earnings, the stock was down 5% the day after releasing its earnings. Is it justified with AI disruption risks and the CEO demission? Let’s find out!

Missed an edition? Catch up on our recent analyses

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The stock at a glance

Want to understand how the Quality Stocks Investment Framework works? This article breaks it down for you

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Stock of the Week: Harrow - Unjustifiably Sanctioned by the Market?

Quality Stocks — Tue, 10 Mar 2026 12:59:32 GMT

For paid subscribers, Stock of the Week goes a step further by opening up the full reasoning behind the investment thesis and decision process:

Detailed TSR calculations, including all underlying assumptions. This allows investors to understand what must go right for the investment to deliver acceptable returns and to stress-test their own expectations against explicit inputs
My analysis beyond the overall verdict. This provides a deeper insight, enabling investors to form an independent view rather than relying solely on a conclusion

This week’s spotlight is on Harrow. Despite hitting a record $89M in quarterly revenue and flipping the switch to positive operating cash flow, the stock was decimated, plunging 28% in a single day following its latest report. The culprit? A bold, high-stakes decision by CEO to double the company’s sales force, a move that intentionally sacrifices immediate EPS to capture market share.

Is this a masterful land and expand play to cement a dominant moat in ophthalmology or an expensive gamble? With the stock now sitting 40% below its recent highs despite raising 2026 guidance to $365M, does this Black Swan sell-off offer a rare entry point into a future healthcare powerhouse or is the market right to fear the spending spree? Let’s find out!

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The stock at a glance

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Recent analyst recommendation updates

March, 03. Cantor Fitzgerald. Buy. $94 —> $91

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Stock of the Week: Duolingo - Learning to Dive Down

Quality Stocks — Tue, 03 Mar 2026 13:24:34 GMT

For paid subscribers, Stock of the Week goes a step further by opening up the full reasoning behind the investment thesis and decision process:

Detailed TSR calculations, including all underlying assumptions. This allows investors to understand what must go right for the investment to deliver acceptable returns and to stress-test their own expectations against explicit inputs
My analysis beyond the overall verdict. This provides a deeper insight, enabling investors to form an independent view rather than relying solely on a conclusion

This week’s spotlight is on Duolingo. Despite surpassing $1B in revenue and crushing Q4 expectations, the stock plummeted over 20% following its latest report as management announced a deliberate pivot to sacrifice short-term profits for long-term scale. CEO Luis von Ahn is betting $50M in foregone revenue that a freer experience will double his user base to 100M daily actives by 2028. Is this a visionary move to widen a behavioral moat or a defensive surrender to the rising tide of AI competitors? Does a 70% drawdown from ATH offer a generational entry point for quality investors or are we looking at a classic value trap? Let’s find out!

Missed an edition? Catch up on our recent analyses

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The stock at a glance

Want to understand how the Quality Stocks Investment Framework works? This article breaks it down for you

Recent analyst recommendation updates

February, 27. Morgan Stanley. Buy —> Hold. $245 —> $100
February, 27. UBS. Buy. $285 —> $125
February, 27. JP Morgan. Buy —> Hold. $200 —> $95
February, 27. China Merchants. Buy —> Hold. $347 —> $111
February, 27. Evercore ISI. Buy —> Hold. $330 —> $114

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Stock of the Week: Palo Alto Networks - Balancing Short-Term Margin Pain for Long-Term Dominance

Quality Stocks — Tue, 24 Feb 2026 11:57:08 GMT

For paid subscribers, Stock of the Week goes a step further by opening up the full reasoning behind the investment thesis and decision process:

Detailed TSR calculations, including all underlying assumptions. This allows investors to understand what must go right for the investment to deliver acceptable returns and to stress-test their own expectations against explicit inputs
My analysis beyond the overall verdict. This provides a deeper insight, enabling investors to form an independent view rather than relying solely on a conclusion

This week’s spotlight is on Palo Alto Networks. Despite beating both revenue and earnings expectations, the stock dropped after its latest report as management trimmed its profit outlook to digest a massive $25B acquisition. Is this a classic case of integration indigestion or a sign that the cybersecurity giant is losing its edge? Does the current dip offer a strategic entry point? Let’s find out!

Missed an edition? Catch up on our recent analyses

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The stock at a glance

Want to understand how the Quality Stocks Investment Framework works? This article breaks it down for you

Recent analyst recommendation updates

February, 19. JP Morgan. Buy. $225 —> $200
February, 19. New Street. Buy. $240 —> $220
February, 19. HSBC. Sell. $157 —> $114
February, 18. Morgan Stanley. Buy. $245 —> $223
February, 18. Deutsche Bank. Buy. $240 —> $220
February, 18. Goldman Sachs. Buy. $240 —> $224

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Stock of the Week: Adyen - Is Adyen on Sale After the 20% Post-Earnings Drop

Quality Stocks — Tue, 17 Feb 2026 12:45:31 GMT

For paid subscribers, Stock of the Week goes a step further by opening up the full reasoning behind the investment thesis and decision process:

Detailed TSR calculations, including all underlying assumptions. This allows investors to understand what must go right for the investment to deliver acceptable returns and to stress-test their own expectations against explicit inputs
My analysis beyond the overall verdict. This provides a deeper insight, enabling investors to form an independent view rather than relying solely on a conclusion

This week’s spotlight is on Adyen. Despite relatively good results the stock dropped 20% after earnings reaching an historically low valuation. Was it justified? Does it offer a buying opportunity? Let’s find out!

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Missed an edition? Catch up on our recent analyses

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The stock at a glance

Want to understand how the Quality Stocks Investment Framework works? This article breaks it down for you

Recent analyst recommendation updates

February, 13. Bank Degroof Petercam. Hold —> Buy. 1,300€
February, 13. UBS. Buy. 2,000€ —> 1,600€
February, 13. JP Morgan. Buy. 2,450€ —> 1,350€
February, 13. Jefferies. Buy. 1,850€ —> 1,240€

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Stock of the Week: Fortinet - Keeping the Lights on in a Dark Market

Quality Stocks — Thu, 12 Feb 2026 12:26:01 GMT

For paid subscribers, Stock of the Week goes a step further by opening up the full reasoning behind the investment thesis and decision process:

Detailed TSR calculations, including all underlying assumptions. This allows investors to understand what must go right for the investment to deliver acceptable returns and to stress-test their own expectations against explicit inputs
My analysis beyond the overall verdict. This provides a deeper insight, enabling investors to form an independent view rather than relying solely on a conclusion

This week’s spotlight is on Fortinet. In a week where the broader tech sector felt like it was navigating through a thick fog of uncertainty, Fortinet emerged as a steady signal with a strong Q4 earnings report, with a massive 40% surge in Unified SASE billings and a fresh $1 billion added to its buyback program. Let’s dive in!

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The stock at a glance

Recent analyst recommendation updates

February, 06. Citigroup. Hold. $85 —> $90
February, 06. RBC. Hold. $85 —> $90
February, 06. Deutsche Bank. Hold. $75 —> $85
February, 06. Rosenblatt. Buy. $100 —> $105
February, 06. Jefferies. Hold. $80 —> $90
February, 06. JP Morgan. Sell. $72 —> $73

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Stock of the Week: ASML - Stellar Results, Steeper Price: Does the Math Still Work for Investors?

Quality Stocks — Tue, 03 Feb 2026 12:14:24 GMT

For paid subscribers, Stock of the Week goes a step further by opening up the full reasoning behind the investment thesis and decision process:

Detailed TSR calculations, including all underlying assumptions. This allows investors to understand what must go right for the investment to deliver acceptable returns and to stress-test their own expectations against explicit inputs
My analysis beyond the overall verdict. This provides a deeper insight, enabling investors to form an independent view rather than relying solely on a conclusion

This week’s spotlight is on ASML. The company just silenced the skeptics with a blowout earnings report, headlined by a record-breaking 13.2B in Q4 bookings. This massive surge in orders provides the clear revenue visibility that was missing in previous quarters, effectively reigniting investor optimism. However, with the stock now trading at a significant premium, we have to ask: has the valuation outpaced the fundamentals? Let’s dive into the numbers

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The stock at a glance

Recent analyst recommendation updates

January, 29. Berenberg. Buy. 1,300€ —> 1,500€
January, 29. Barclays. Buy. 1,200€ —> 1,500€
January, 29. JP Morgan. Buy. 1,300€ —> 1,515€
January, 28. Jefferies. Hold. 1,020€ —> 1,260€

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Stock of the Week: Intel - Risky Bet or Turnaround Opportunity?

Quality Stocks — Tue, 27 Jan 2026 12:26:23 GMT

For paid subscribers, Stock of the Week goes a step further by opening up the full reasoning behind the investment thesis and decision process:

Detailed TSR calculations, including all underlying assumptions. This allows investors to understand what must go right for the investment to deliver acceptable returns and to stress-test their own expectations against explicit inputs
My analysis beyond the overall verdict. This provides a deeper insight, enabling investors to form an independent view rather than relying solely on a conclusion

This week’s spotlight is on Intel. The market didn’t like its latest earnings report (-17%), yet the stock is still up nearly 100% over the past 12 months. So what is going on here? Let’s dig in and see whether Intel still makes sense as an investment.

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Last Week’s Stock of the Week

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The stock at a glance

Recent analyst recommendation updates

January, 23. Northland Securities. Buy. $46 —> $54
January, 23. UBS. Hold. $49 —> $52
January, 23. Truist. Hold. $30 —> $49
January, 23. Rosenblatt Securities. Sell. $25 —> $30
January, 23. Mizuho. Hold. $41 —> $48
January, 23. Morgan Stanley. Hold. $38 —> $41

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Stock of the Week: Taiwan Semiconductor - Exceptional Earnings Fueled by the AI Boom

Quality Stocks — Tue, 20 Jan 2026 12:47:27 GMT

For paid subscribers, Stock of the Week goes a step further by opening up the full reasoning behind the investment thesis and decision process:

Detailed TSR calculations, including all underlying assumptions. This allows investors to understand what must go right for the investment to deliver acceptable returns and to stress-test their own expectations against explicit inputs
My analysis beyond the overall verdict. This provides a deeper insight, enabling investors to form an independent view rather than relying solely on a conclusion

For this week’s edition, the focus is on Taiwan Semiconductor, the world’s leading semiconductor foundry, where exceptional earnings and accelerating AI-driven demand have fueled a well-deserved stock price increase in recent months.

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Last Week’s Stock of the Week

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The stock at a glance

Recent news

The explosion in demand for advanced semiconductors is driven by the AI mega trend, with surging needs for chips
In the latest earnings (Q4 2025), TSMC delivered record results: revenue of approximately $33.73B (up 25.5% YoY in $), net profit of about $16B (up 35% YoY), gross margin at 62.3%
TSMC’s advanced process technologies (7nm and smaller) accounted for 77% of wafer revenue in Q4 2025, with 3nm contributing significantly
The company entered 2026 with powerful tailwinds: strong demand, massive capacity expansions and fast ramp-up of 2nm (already in volume production with good yields)
Supply constraints for advanced nodes are being addressed through record CAPEX, with TSMC guiding $52B to $56B for 2026 (up significantly from $41B in 2025), focused 70–80% on leading-edge technologies and advanced packaging
Demand continues to accelerate with broader AI adoption and positive customer signals (planned 2 to 3 years ahead)
These dynamics position TSMC for renewed volume-driven growth in 2026, with FY revenue expected to rise close to 30% in $
TSMC’s CEO is betting on an offensive strategy, aggressively ramping up production and expanding global capacity (especially in the US). While acknowledging nerves about potential overinvestment, he emphasized verified demand from cloud providers and customers, calling it a fundamental “AI megatrend”
Risks should not be overlooked, particularly escalating tensions between China and Taiwan. Any conflict could disrupt, at least temporarily, a significant portion of global semiconductor supply chains

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Recent analyst recommendation updates

October, 17. Morgan Stanley. Buy. NT$1,688 —> NT$1,588

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Stock of the Week: Novo Nordisk - A Possible Inflection Point, Powered by Oral Therapies

Quality Stocks — Thu, 15 Jan 2026 12:43:16 GMT

For paid subscribers, Stock of the Week goes a step further by opening up the full reasoning behind the investment thesis and decision process:

Detailed TSR calculations, including all underlying assumptions. This allows investors to understand what must go right for the investment to deliver acceptable returns and to stress-test their own expectations against explicit inputs
My analysis beyond the overall verdict. This provides a deeper insight, enabling investors to form an independent view rather than relying solely on a conclusion

For this week’s edition, the focus is on Novo Nordisk, the Danish pharmaceutical giant, where an improving newsflow and renewed momentum in oral therapies could mark a potential inflection point for the stock.

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Last Week’s Stock of the Week

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The stock at a glance

Recent news

The explosion in demand for GLP-1 is driven by the global obesity epidemic and the proven efficacy of these therapies in achieving substantial weight loss (15% - 20% on average), reducing cardiovascular risks and managing type 2 diabetes
Semaglutide-based treatments like Ozempic and Wegovy have transformed obesity from a lifestyle issue into a treatable chronic disease, creating a strong patient and physician adoption
Novo Nordisk launched the first oral GLP-1 for obesity (the Wegovy pill). This needle-free option addresses patient preference barriers and expands access, with manufacturing investments ensuring no repeat of prior shortages that previously limited growth and allowed compounded copies to erode sales
The company faced headwinds in 2025, including slowing growth (multiple guidance cuts amid US pricing pressures and competition especially with Eli Lilly), but entered 2026 with tailwinds: aggressive price reductions (up to 70% for cash-pay and negotiated channels), the oral Wegovy launch positioned for clean supply and volume upside
GLP-1 supply constraints have largely eased due to massive capacity expansions by both leaders, while demand continues to accelerate with oral formats, broader indications (cardiovascular, …) and improving reimbursement. The overall market is projected to grow robustly
These dynamics position suppliers like Novo Nordisk for renewed volume-driven growth in 2026, offsetting (at least partially) pricing pressures
The CEO is betting on an offensive strategy from ramping up production, launching new produtcs (higher dose formulation, new usages). The company expects a difficult year in 2026 but remains positive for its long-term growth outlook

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Recent analyst recommendation updates

January, 07. Barclays. Hold. 375DKK —> 360DKK
December, 16. DNB Carnegie. Buy. 445DKK —> 440DKK
December, 15. Kepler Chevreux. Buy. 510DKK —> 430DKK
December, 09. HSBC. Hold. 300DKK —> 350DKK
Decembre, 08. JP Morgan. Buy. 500DKK —> 350DKK

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Stock of the Week: Micron - Riding the Memory Cycle

Quality Stocks — Tue, 06 Jan 2026 12:07:08 GMT

For paid subscribers, Stock of the Week goes a step further by opening up the full reasoning behind the investment thesis and decision process:

Detailed TSR calculations, including all underlying assumptions. This allows investors to understand what must go right for the investment to deliver acceptable returns and to stress-test their own expectations against explicit inputs
My analysis beyond the overall verdict. This provides a deeper insight, enabling investors to form an independent view rather than relying solely on a conclusion

For this week’s edition, the focus is on Micron, a leading player in the memory semiconductor industry. After a 10% performance on the first trading day of 2026, let’s analyze what happened!

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The stock at a glance

Recent news

AI is driving an explosion in memory demand because modern models are both data-hungry and memory-intensive. Training and running large language models requires storing massive model parameters, activations and datasets, while moving data continuously between processors and memory at very high speeds. As models scale in size, memory capacity per accelerator and bandwidth per chip must increase in tandem, making memory a potential bottleneck. This has led to sharply rising demand for advanced DRAM (especially HBM - high bandwidth memory) alongside higher overall memory content per server, structurally lifting memory demand beyond traditional compute-driven cycles.
Micron, as one of the 3 major HBM suppliers alongside Samsung and SK Hynix, has sold out its entire HBM production capacity for calendar 2026 (fiscal year 2026 and H1 2027) under committed multi-year contracts, providing exceptional revenue visibility
The company reported record fiscal Q1 2026 revenue of $13.6B (up 57% YoY), with DRAM revenue leading the growth, followed by guidance for Q2 revenue of approximately $18.7B implying over 130% YoY revenue growth
Industry supply growth for DRAM and NAND is projected at approximately 20% for calendar 2026, constrained by limited fab expansions, long lead times for new capacity and the resource-intensive nature of HBM production (which consumes 3-4x more wafer capacity per bit than standard DRAM). This modest supply increase significantly lags behind AI-driven demand growth, estimated at 30-40% overall
The resulting shortages grant suppliers like Micron strong pricing power, with recent HBM price hikes of nearly 20% for 2026 deliveries and expectations for double-digit quarterly price rises in conventional DRAM throughout 2026

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Recent analyst recommendation updates

January, 02. Bernstein. Buy. $270 —> $330
January, 02. Daiwa. Buy. $200 —> $350
December, 18. Rosenblatt Securities. Buy. $300 —> $500
December, 18. Raymond James. Buy. $190 —> $310

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Stock of the Week: Oracle - a Canary in the Coal Mine

Quality Stocks — Thu, 18 Dec 2025 12:22:30 GMT

Here is the 44th edition of “Stock of the Week”. You can find all the previous analyses and my articles on my main page (for an easier search, use a computer, mobile version is harder to navigate).

Here is the link to the previous “Stocks of the Week” as well

After a period of exceptional performance, the stock is now down more than 50% from its ATH reached just 4 months ago. Is this a warning sign for the tech sector, or simply a market overreaction that is now cooling off? Let’s find out.

While free subscribers already benefit from a wealth of valuable content, upgrading to a paid subscription unlocks exclusive research, in-depth insights, real-time portfolio tracking, advanced stock screeners, and more giving you an edge to stay ahead of the market. Don’t miss out: subscribe now and supercharge your investing journey!

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The stock at a glance

Last earnings report

The cloud segment is clearly driving the entire company, posting 34% growth, while the historical software segment declined by 3% YoY. Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS) performed even more strongly, with revenue up 68%.

EPS rose sharply, increasing 91% YoY. Remaining performance obligations (RPO), effectively the company’s order backlog, surged 438% compared with last year, still benefiting from the major OpenAI contract.

Analysts’ recommendations

Dec, 15. Wolfe Research. Buy. $275 —> $250
Dec, 15. Citic. $243 —> $200
Dec, 12. HSBC. Buy. $382 —> $364
Dec, 11. Bank of America. Hold. $320 —> $220
Dec, 11. Wolfe Research. Buy. $400 —> $275
Dec, 11. TD Cowen. Buy. $400 —> $350

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My analysis

In my previous articles, I highlighted the risks behind Oracle’s parabolic rise. While such a rally can be justified when everything goes right, 2 major issues stood out: execution risk and dependency on a single large contract
On the execution side, building data centers is capital-intensive and requires substantial funding. Oracle already carries significant debt, making the recent Blue Owl news a negative signal regarding its ability to finance expansion smoothly. In addition, the company has less financial and technical firepower than some of its larger competitors (Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon obvisouly)
On the dependency side, the OpenAI contract raises several questions. What happens if the order is reduced or canceled? What if AI demand continues to grow, but at a slower pace than expected? And what if competition gains market share, limiting Oracle’s long-term upside
These issues reflect broader characteristics of the current market, where data center expansion and projected growth depend heavily on execution capabilities and the ability to monetize AI investments. This inherently increases risk. While AI is undoubtedly a technological revolution, key uncertainties remain: the pace of adoption, the sustainability of monetization, and whether more efficient or simpler competitive models can keep costs low, making it harder to amortize massive capital investments
All of this leads to one conclusion: caution is warranted. Waiting for a more attractive valuation may offer a better risk–reward profile before investing in this type of stock

Technical analysis

I have defined 3 buying zones that I find interesting for long-term investments during pullbacks. While these zones may not be reached, I am prepared for a market (or stock) consolidation to seize long-term opportunities. For me, this approach offers a better risk/reward ratio.

Of course, this is just my opinion, and I am sharing it with you, but each investor should decide on their own investment style. With that said, here are my three buying zones for Oracle.

Buying zone 1. $130
Buying zone 2. $100
Buying zone 3. $62

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Stock of the Week: Fiserv - Can the Stock Recover After Its 2025 Breakdown?

Quality Stocks — Thu, 11 Dec 2025 12:46:41 GMT

Here is the 43rd edition of “Stock of the Week”. You can find all the previous analyses and my articles on my main page (for an easier search, use a computer, mobile version is harder to navigate).

Here is the link to the previous “Stocks of the Week” as well

Fiserv plunged nearly 75% from its ATH following a series of negative developments, leaving the stock down 67% YTD. Once considered a growth standout, it now trades more like a value play. Let’s explore the key drivers behind the decline and what may lie ahead for the company.

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The stock at a glance

Last earnings report

Fiserv’s revenue rose 1% YoY to $5.26B, falling short of analyst expectations of around $5.36B. This performance was driven by a 5% increase in the Merchant Solutions segment, which includes the Clover payments platform, but offset by a 3% decline in the Financial Solutions segment amid economic headwinds, particularly in international markets like Argentina where currency volatility and a deteriorating environment hampered results.

Adjusted earnings per share dropped 11% to $2.04, below the anticipated $2.09, reflecting pressures from deferred investments, strategic shifts, and a contraction in adjusted operating margin to 37% from 40% a year earlier.

In response to these results, Fiserv sharply cut its FY 2025 outlook, now projecting organic revenue growth of just 3.5% to 4%, down from an earlier 10% target and adjusted EPS of $8.50 to $8.60, also a decline from prior guidance of $10.15 to $10.30. Management attributed the shortfalls to intensified competition in merchant services, pricing pressures, customer churn in Clover, and a pivot toward long-term strategies under a new “One Fiserv” action plan aimed at restoring mid-single-digit revenue growth and double-digit EPS expansion by 2027.

Analysts’ recommendations

Oct, 30. Truist Securities. Buy —> Hold. $143 —> $75
Oct, 30. TD Cowen. Buy —> Hold. $177 —> $80
Oct, 30. Goldman Sachs. Buy —> Hold. $149 —> $79
Oct, 30. Morgan Stanley. Buy —> Hold. $179 —> $81
Oct, 30. Baird. Buy —> Hold. $185 —> $92
Nov, 24. Jefferies. Hold. $70 —> $60

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My analysis

Fiserv’s situation is undeniably challenging. Growth has slowed meaningfully as competition intensifies, and the broader payments industry is now expanding faster than Fiserv itself: an indication of notable market-share losses, historically a worrying signal for any industry leader
This pressure has been compounded by management’s sharp revision to its revenue outlook, lowering expected growth from around 10% to below 4%. Such a downgrade fundamentally alters the company’s narrative and undermines the original investment thesis
That said, the stock now sits at a level where a recovery is possible. Valuation has compressed to roughly 10× earnings with a FCF yield of about 7%, leaving the shares looking reasonably priced. While debt remains elevated, it is still manageable. The newly reshuffled leadership team must now rebuild investor confidence and reignite growth momentum
At this stage, Fiserv is a bet rather than a stable compounder. If management succeeds in restoring growth and credibility, the upside could be substantial. The recent $1.5M insider purchase is a constructive signal of confidence
However, the risks are significant, and disciplined position sizing is essential. More conservative investors may prefer to remain on the sidelines until clearer signs of stabilization emerge

Technical analysis

Of course, this is just my opinion, and I am sharing it with you, but each investor should decide on their own investment style. With that said, here are my three buying zones for Fiserv.

Buying zone 1. $60
Buying zone 2. $49
Buying zone 3. $42

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Stock of the Week: Alphabet - Surges as the Market’s New AI Favorite

Quality Stocks — Thu, 04 Dec 2025 12:27:58 GMT

Here is the 42nd edition of “Stock of the Week”. You can find all the previous analyses and my articles on my main page (for an easier search, use a computer, mobile version is harder to navigate).

Here is the link to the previous “Stocks of the Week” as well

Alphabet makes its 4thappearance as Stock of the Week in 2025. The reason is simple: a dramatic narrative turnaround and outstanding stock performance. Here is what is fueling the surge and what investors should watch in terms of risks and opportunities.

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The stock at a glance

Last earnings report

Alphabet delivered an impressive Q3 25, with revenue up 16% to $102B, beating expectations of $100B. EPS came in at $2.87, up 35% YoY and well above the $2.26 anticipated by analysts.

Core Search continues to show resilience, growing 15% YoY despite earlier worries about competitive threats. The standout segment was Google Cloud, which posted 34% growth, firmly establishing itself as Alphabet’s primary growth driver. Cloud operating income also accelerated sharply, highlighting the company’s improving cost discipline.

This EPS strength confirms the thesis I laid out last year: Alphabet had untapped margin potential (through Cloud scale and streamlined operations) and that profitability tailwind is now materializing.

Analysts’ recommendations

Dec, 02. Arete. Buy. $300 —> $380
Dec, 02. HSBC. Buy. $335 —> $370
Dec, 01. Guggenheim. Buy. $330 —> $375
Oct, 30. JP Morgan. Buy. $300 —> $340

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My analysis

Back in April (and really over the past 2 years) I consistently maintained a bullish stance on Alphabet. At the time, many analysts argued that Google was a dying business facing cultural issues, weak management, and an inevitable decline in Search. My view was different: Cloud was scaling rapidly and represented a powerful growth lever, while Search was showing signs of slowdown, not collapse. Meanwhile, AI and Waymo offered meaningful long-term optionality
Valuation also made the case compelling. With a PE near 15x, Alphabet traded at a level that simply did not reflect its fundamentals. For fundamental investors, it was an obvious opportunity: strong business quality, resilient cash flows, and a very reasonable price. That is why my paid subscribers were notified when I bought aggressively around $150 back in April
Since then, the AI narrative has shifted dramatically, from “Alphabet is late” to “Alphabet may be the next winner”. Buffett’s entry around $240, combined with accelerating growth and a more favorable story, pushed many investors into the stock above $300, delivering a 100% return in just 8 months
Today, however, valuation is no longer cheap. With the PE approaching 30x, the risk/reward profile is far less attractive. The stock’s rise has been nearly parabolic, and investors should remember that narratives can reverse quickly, especially in technology. It is actually funny to see previously bearish analysts becoming bullish!
I still love the company, but I don’t think this is the right time to add. I would wait for the next major consolidation, ideally 30% lower or more, before buying again. And do not forget to always check the risks that the company faces (competition, reduced Search potential or regulation).

Technical analysis

Of course, this is just my opinion, and I am sharing it with you, but each investor should decide on their own investment style. With that said, here are my three buying zones for Alphabet.

Buying zone 1. $205
Buying zone 2. $175
Buying zone 3. $150

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Stock of the Week: NVidia - Why is the Stock Falling Despite Such Strong Results?

Quality Stocks — Tue, 25 Nov 2025 12:25:33 GMT

Here is the 41st edition of “Stock of the Week”. You can find all the previous analyses and my articles on my main page (for an easier search, use a computer, mobile version is harder to navigate).

Here is the link to the previous “Stocks of the Week” as well

The stock is down over 10% from its ATH despite beating expectations. So what is going on? Is the market overreacting? Let’s break it down!

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The stock at a glance

Last earnings report

NVIDIA announced its fiscal Q3 2026 results. The company posted record revenue of $57B, which represented a 22% increase from the previous quarter and a 62% jump YoY. This figure beat Wall Street expectations of around $55B.Net income reached $31.9B, up 65%, while EPS came in at $1.30, exceeding analyst forecasts by several cents.

The Data Center segment, powered overwhelmingly by demand for Blackwell GPUs, generated a record $51.2B, accounting for roughly 90% of total revenue and growing 66% YoY. Gaming revenue rose 30% to $4.3B, and Professional Visualization climbed 56% to $760M.Looking ahead, NVIDIA guided Q4 revenue to $65B (plus or minus 2%), well above consensus estimates near $62B, with expected EPS around $1.43. Management highlighted an enormous backlog, with over $500B in committed Blackwell and upcoming Rubin orders extending into 2026 and beyond.

During the quarter, NVIDIA returned $37B to shareholders through buybacks and dividends and announced a fresh $60B repurchase authorization.

Analysts’ recommendations

Nov, 21. CICC. Buy. $200 —> $228
Nov, 20. Wedbush. Buy. $210 —> $230
Nov, 20. Truist. Buy. $228 —> $255
Nov, 20. Bernstein. Buy. $225 —> $275
Nov, 20. Deutsche Bank. Hold. $180 —> $215
Nov, 20. Goldman Sachs. Buy. $240 —> $250

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The results were exceptional, and NVidia’s financial performance remains on another level. Guidance is still solid. So why is the market suddenly worried?
Several factors may be at play. First, the AI market is still concentrated among a small number of customers, many of whom are building massive capacity in anticipation of explosive AI growth. If adoption takes longer than expected, orders could slow sharply. That does not change the fact that AI is a transformational long-term trend, but it could create short-term volatility
Second, competition will inevitably strengthen. Outside the US, several countries are developing models that use only about 20% of US compute but deliver roughly 80% of the performance. And for many use cases, that 80% may be “good enough”, slowly reducing the absolute need for top-tier hardware
This brings us to valuation. NVidia’s multiples already reflect a lot of optimism, and after a nearly 50% YTD rally, a 12% pullback is a perfectly normal consolidation
Bottom line: the long-term investment case has not changed. As I have highlighted before, hardware-heavy businesses can face periods of overordering and digestion, and we may be entering one of those phases. But NVidia remains a high-quality company with a dominant position in a massive secular trend
Final thought: if the AI market were to cool off sharply, NVidia would certainly feel it, but as the sector’s premier “shovel seller”, it is unlikely to be the most severely impacted player

Technical analysis

I have defined three buying zones that I find interesting for long-term investments during pullbacks. While these zones may not be reached, I am prepared for a market (or stock) consolidation to seize long-term opportunities. For me, this approach offers a better risk/reward ratio.

Of course, this is just my opinion, and I am sharing it with you, but each investor should decide on their own investment style. With that said, here are my three buying zones for NVidia.

Buying zone 1. $150
Buying zone 2. $135
Buying zone 3. $95

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Stock of the Week: On Holding - The Last Earnings Release Drew a Positive Market Reaction

Quality Stocks — Fri, 21 Nov 2025 12:20:35 GMT

Here is the 40th edition of “Stock of the Week”. You can find all the previous analyses and my articles on my main page (for an easier search, use a computer, mobile version is harder to navigate).

Here is the link to the previous “Stocks of the Week” as well

The latest earnings report was very strong. I recently published a Stock of the Week article on On Holding, where I highlighted that its previous valuation looked stretched and identified 2 attractive buy zones at $47 and $35. The $35 level has since acted as solid support, helping fuel the stock’s recent rise following the earnings release. Let’s dive in!

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The stock at a glance

Last earnings report

On Holding reported record Q3 2025 net sales of 794M CHF, representing a 34% increase. Gross profit margin expanded to 65.7%, driven by premium pricing and supply chain improvements. Adjusted EBITDA reached 179.5M CHF, while EPS hit 0.36CHF, surpassing estimates of 0.22CHF.

Analysts’ recommendations

Nov, 13. UBS. Buy. $79 —> $85
Nov, 13. Truist. Buy. $60 —> $65

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My analysis

On Holding’s key advantage today is its accelerating market share gains. The company’s sales momentum stands out clearly when compared with peers: revenue is growing around 30% for On, versus less than 1% for Nike, 8% for Deckers Outdoor, and 5% for Adidas
Earnings growth should remain robust, supported not only by strong top-line expansion but also by improving margins. As the company scales, it benefits from greater operating efficiency, which drives profitability. EPS is expected to grow more than 100% in 2026 and another 35% in 2027
While the valuation is elevated, the market is pricing in rapid growth, rising margins, and strong momentum. Management continues to express high confidence in the company’s trajectory
As always, cautious investors may prefer waiting for a pullback toward the $35 area, whereas momentum-driven investors might choose to enter immediately and ride the trend

Technical analysis

Of course, this is just my opinion, and I am sharing it with you, but each investor should decide on their own investment style. With that said, here are my three buying zones for On Holding.

Buying zone 1. $35
Buying zone 2. $30
Buying zone 3. $24

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Stock of the Week: Axon - Is the 20% Drop Justified?

Quality Stocks — Tue, 11 Nov 2025 12:18:44 GMT

Here is the 39th edition of “Stock of the Week”. You can find all the previous analyses and my articles on my main page (for an easier search, use a computer, mobile version is harder to navigate).

Here is the link to the previous “Stocks of the Week” as well

Axon delivered strong earnings, posting 31% revenue growth above estimates. Yet the stock fell 20% within days. What explains this sell-off? Let’s dig in!

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The stock at a glance

Last earnings report

The company delivered solid growth of 31%, slightly above expectations. Recurring revenue (mainly software and subscriptions) grew even faster at 41%, reaching $305M for the quarter, roughly half of total revenue.

However, stock-based compensation remains, in my view, one of the company’s major weak spots. It totaled $146M for the quarter, up 44% YoY, outpacing revenue growth. This now represents about 20% of total revenue. And as I often argue, it is not a tool to attract top talent but rather a sign of managerial excess as most of SBC goes to a handful of people.

Tariffs weighed on margins, with COGS rising 33% versus 31% revenue growth, though the impact remains limited.

Looking ahead, the company expects 31% growth in Q4 FY25, which is broadly in line with market expectations.

Analysts’ recommendations

Nov, 05. Goldman Sachs. Buy. $940 —> $800
Nov, 05. Piper Sandler. Buy. $893 —> $753
Nov, 05. Barclays. Buy. $861 —> $702
Nov, 05. UBS. Hold. $840 —> $610
Nov, 05. Morgan Stanley. Buy. $885 —> $760

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My analysis

There is no doubt that Axon stands out as a company with an exceptional business model: strong growth, favorable tailwinds, a clear competitive advantage, solid gross margins, and an increasing share of recurring revenue

The company also maintains a healthy balance sheet, allowing it to invest both in organic growth (research, new markets) and external expansion, as seen recently with a major $600M+ acquisition

While the results were decent, the valuation remains extremely high. With current margins around 3%, the PE ratio (well above 300x) is essentially meaningless as a valuation metric. The PS stands above 16x for 2025, expected to decline to around 10x by 2027. Still a lofty valuation despite the company’s undeniable quality

However, stock-based compensation is, in my view, a major red flag. Virtually all free cash flow is being consumed to reward a small group of executives, a frustrating reality for shareholders

Overall, the results were solid but not strong enough to justify the current valuation. The margin pressure, driven by several factors, has slightly dampened the company’s short-term potential, leading to the recent negative market reaction

In short, Axon fits the profile of many fast-growing US companies : excellent business models weighed down by excessive SBC. It is not the kind of setup I like to invest in. For those who do, waiting for a pullback toward $475 could be prudent. More opportunistic investors might find $280 or even $180 - $200 far more compelling entry points

Technical analysis

Of course, this is just my opinion, and I am sharing it with you, but each investor should decide on their own investment style. With that said, here are my three buying zones for Axon.

Buying zone 1. $475
Buying zone 2. $280
Buying zone 3. $190

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